OzDemocracy

There is much talk in the media and blogosphere of an election wipeout if the Liberal party does not support the governments carbon pollution reduction scheme (CPRS) in the senate. This prediction is based on the high number of people who want something done about climate change and the current dismal polling figures for the party. Although on the surface it may appear that the Liberals would lose an election based on climate change what is not so certain is whether they would lose an election based on the CPRS.

In Nov of 09 Morgan conducted polling concerning both climate change and the CPRS. The results found that 66% of people either believed, we had to act on climate change now or that it was already too late. This figure was consistent with other polling showing a high majority are concerned and want something done. The same poll showed however that only 50% approved of the governments CPRS, down from 55% three months earlier.

Given the obvious scepticism of many in the Coalition ranks with regards to climate change it might be hard to move the debate on from the science. If the Coalition does manage to do so however, they may have an election winning tactic in blocking the CPRS and forming an alternative solution.

Tony Abbott has quit the Coalition frontbench in a likely move to contest the Liberal party leadership against Malcolm Turnbull. The reason Mr. Abbott has given for his resignation is Mr. Turnbull’s unwillingness to delay the Coalition support of the emissions trading scheme (ETS), currently being debated in the senate.

Since Mr. Abbott’s resignation several other shadow frontbench MP have also resign including Senate leader Nick Minchin, Deputy leader Eric Abetz, Sophie Mirabella and Tony Smith.

Despite this mass resignation of shadow frontbench MPs Mr. Turnbull has remained unwilling to give up his leadership or the fight to pass the governments ETS.

As a result of the likely leadership move on Mr. Turnbull, the Rudd government is considering guillotining the senate debate of the emissions trading scheme.

Update

Tony Abbott has announced  he will challenge Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal leadership on Monday if he does not change his mind on supporting the governments climate change bill. The Turnbull camp also looks like supporting Joe Hockey for the leadership if there is a successful spill motion.

Malcolm Turnbull will continue to be the Liberal party leader for the time being after a spill motion was lost. According to reports the secret ballot for the leadership spill was lost 48 - 35, which was moved by Western Australian backbencher Wilson Tuckey. The only contender to announce they would contest the leadership, if the spill was successful, was former Howard government minister, Kevin Andrew. The two strongest leadership contender, Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey, decleared early in the day, they would not challenge for the leadership.

Even though the leadership spill was not successful at removing Malcolm Turnbull it does put into question if he will take the Coalition to next year’s election. The close result means as few as seven members need to change their mind for a spill to be successful. The party is also still bitterly divided on the issue of the governments emissions trading scheme with Coalitions members in the senate already crossing the floor.

What Malcolm Turnbull will be hoping for over the next few days is for the ETS to be passed by the senate and the agenda to move to something less divisive. The problem is even with the ETS off the table his polling numbers are low and the bitter infighting over the last two days will likely move them lower. This may however be an advantage by reducing the number of contenders wishing to lead a Coalition so far behind.

There have been numerous news articles over the last couple of days claiming emails and documents from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the U.K.’s University of East Alglia show climate change as being still in doubt. The some 2,000 emails and 3,000 documents have come about as a result of computer hackers gaining access to the CRU servers and making a subset of them public.

The first of the emails appeared on a Russian server with a note from the hacker, saying “We feel that climate science is, in the current situation, too important to be kept under wraps. We hereby release a random selection of correspondence.” The university has acknowledged the security breach, saying its data has been stolen.

From reports the emails show that scientists are unable to account for the lack of global warming at the moment and that there is a lack of evidence to prove man-made climate change.

There is little evidence that the emails and documents show a hoax or disprove climate change. They do however show a need for more questions to be asked of the science and for people to become more sceptical.

Many people following the US Presidential election may be confused about how a candidate becomes the nominee for there party. In general it is the same for both the Democratic and Republican party, the person with over 50% of the delegates at the parties national convention wins the nomination. The process for gaining delegates is through primaries, caucuses and gaining the support of unpledged delegates.

What is a Primary

A primary is an election run by state and local governments that determines how many delegates each candidate gets to take to convention. There are different types of primary elections as well as different ways of splitting up the delegates from the results of the primary. Most states have what is know as a binding primary, in which the results of the election legally bind some or all of the delegates to a particular candidate.

To be able to vote in a primary in most states you need to be a registered member of a party and you can only vote in that parties primary, this is known as a closed primary. Some states however run a semi-closed primary, where independents can vote in either primary or open primaries, where any voter may vote in either primary.

In the Democratic party delegates are given based on a proportional representation system only. In the Republican party however different states use different methods including winner-takes-all based on state, winner-takes-all based on congressional district, proportional representation or a combination.

What is a Caucus

Different states have different processes in deciding how a caucus is run. In general however a caucus in a meeting of party members to decide on who they are going to support. Most states do not run a caucus but those that do either run a caucus and a primary or just a caucus. The most common form of caucus is where delegates are selected to go to state or county convention and then vote on delegates to the national convention.

What are Unpledged Delegates

Unpledged delegates or Superdelegates, as they are know in the Democratic party, are party member or elected officials, who are automatic delegates to the national convention and can put there vote and support behind any candidate they wish. If the number of binded delegates between two candidates is close then these delegates will determine who the nominee is.

The Numbers Game

Each state gets a different number of delegates and is based on its number of congressional districts (population). Some states also receive extra delegates because they have elected officials, party leaders and/or good past performances in Presidential elections.

To win the Democratic nomination a candidate currently needs 2025 delegates out of a total 4049. Of the 4049 there are 3253 pledged delegates and 796 unpledged (superdelegates).

To win the Republican nomination a candidate currently needs 1191 delegates out of a total 2380. Of the 2380 there are 1917 pledged delegates and 463 unpledged.